☕️ 200 economists admit they can't predict AI's job impact

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Top News

🇨🇳 China's exports jump 27% on AI boom LINK

• China's exports climbed 27% in June from a year earlier, well ahead of economist expectations and May's 19.4% pace, driven largely by global demand tied to the artificial intelligence boom.
• The surge mainly reflects a jump in semiconductor prices and strong shipments of vehicles and other tech gear, widening China's trade surplus to $125.6 billion from $105.4 billion in May, as imports rose 36%.
• Growth is looking fragile, warns BNP Paribas' Wei Li, as auto and AI shipments hinge on global demand and trade barriers; exports to Southeast Asia jumped nearly 35%, to the EU over 18%, and to the US almost 14%.

Fed's Waller warns a rate hike may come in July LINK

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled the central bank may raise interest rates as soon as its July 28-29 meeting if inflation data this week come in hot, while warning against overreacting and tipping the economy into recession.
• His concern centers on core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rising from 3% in December 2025 to 3.4% in May, with nearly 70% of service categories now posting annualized gains above 3%.
• Waller blamed 2025 trade levies, higher energy costs from Middle East conflict and AI infrastructure demand; interest-rate futures traders put the odds of a July hike between 39% and 45%, with the next inflation reading due Tuesday.

🇬🇧 UK targets £33B boost from tokenized finance LINK

• The U.K. has published a roadmap for putting wholesale financial markets on blockchain rails, estimating the shift could add up to £33 billion in annual economic output and £14 billion in yearly tax revenue by 2035 if built quickly.
• The plan, from government adviser Christopher Woolard, prioritizes digital government bonds, stablecoins and onchain settlement, targeting first issuance of a tokenized gilt (DIGIT) by the first quarter of 2027 to avoid losing liquidity and market share.
• The report projects the global market for tokenized assets could reach $88 trillion by 2035, up from roughly $23 billion today, but warns adoption depends on payment systems capable of real-time, cross-border settlement across stablecoins and traditional money.

200 economists admit they can't predict AI's job impact LINK

• More than 200 economists, including 16 Nobel laureates and the chief economists of OpenAI and Anthropic, signed a statement this week conceding they cannot forecast how artificial intelligence will reshape jobs and the economy.
• The statement warns AI could drive a transformation larger than the Industrial Revolution but far faster, bringing risks like mass job displacement alongside potential living-standard gains, and urges building guardrails now rather than offering predictions.
• Underlying data is contested: Erik Brynjolfsson's dashboard tracking 4.6 million workers shows employment for those aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed jobs shrinking more than 4% annually, while Apollo's Torsten Slok notes five competing frameworks disagree most on the highest-stakes jobs.

Macro News

• BP shares gained 3% on forecasts of higher trading profits from oil. LINK
• Trump plans naval blockade and 20% fee on Hormuz shipping. LINK
• US bans Federal Reserve digital currency via bipartisan housing bill, unsigned. LINK
• Japan's 10-year bond yield hit 2.901%, highest since 1996. LINK
• IMF warns European governments face explosive debt trajectories without reforms. LINK
• Singapore's economy grew 5.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, beating forecasts. LINK
• China's June crude oil imports fell 41.3% to a decade low. LINK
• Dollar held steady near 101.27 as traders awaited US inflation data. LINK

Corporate News

• Shein secures Chinese regulator approval for Hong Kong IPO. LINK
• General Fusion shares jumped 40% in Nasdaq trading debut. LINK
• Intel to invest €5 billion upgrading its Irish chip factories. LINK
• Strategy skipped Bitcoin buys, raised $467 million via stock sales. LINK
• Mastercard weighs selling UK payments unit Vocalink amid ownership concerns. LINK
• Nubank wins approval to become a full-service bank in Mexico. LINK
• Kraken launches Mastercard debit card for crypto spending across Europe. LINK
• Pure Data Centres builds AI data center in Finland with Microsoft. LINK
• Global smartphone shipments fell 11% amid rising memory chip costs. LINK
• SBI Holdings and Solana Foundation form blockchain venture SBI Solana Global. LINK
• Volkswagen to cut 50,000 jobs after rejecting German factory closures. LINK

Stocks

▲ Biggest winners

Figma, Inc. rose 12% after Trump reinstated Iran blockade and imposed 20% Hormuz shipping toll. LINK

Venture Global, Inc. rose 9% after Trump reinstated Iran blockade and imposed 20% Hormuz shipping toll. LINK

Atlassian Corporation rose 8% after Trump reinstated Iran blockade and imposed 20% Hormuz shipping toll. LINK

Equinor ASA rose 6% after Brent crude surged 8% on Trump Hormuz blockade and 20% cargo toll. LINK

▼ Biggest losers

Applovin Corporation fell 13% on report Trump-linked savings app projections mislead users on returns. LINK

Astera Labs, Inc. fell 12% on heavy insider selling disclosed in SEC filings. LINK

Nextpower Inc. fell 11% after Trump reinstated Iran blockade and imposed 20% Hormuz shipping toll. LINK

IonQ, Inc. fell 9% after Trump reinstated Iran blockade and imposed 20% Hormuz shipping toll. LINK

Deal Flow

• PixVerse raises Series C extension, valuation tops $2 billion. LINK
• Chinese humanoid robot makers rush toward IPOs to avoid obsolescence. LINK
• JPMorgan starts MDA Space at Overweight with $34 price target. LINK
• Auger raises $50 million to automate supply-chain decision-making software. LINK
• Valarian raises $50 million to help reduce reliance on US clouds. LINK
• Skalar raises €12 million to build AI-native tax and accounting firm. LINK
• Aditya Birla Renewables buys Shell's Indian clean-energy assets for $1.8 billion. LINK

Research & Reports

• BNEF delays expected LNG supply glut to 2031-2032 amid Mideast war. LINK
• AI inference costs, not training, now dominate enterprise AI spending. LINK
• Stablecoin market shrank $10 billion since May, largest drop since TerraUSD. LINK
• Nvidia challengers target narrow niches, not its dominant training-chip market. LINK
• Restaurant tech platforms embed lending directly into daily software tools. LINK