Hi there, this is your daily ☕️ Finpresso.
In today's newsletter:
🚀 SpaceX falls below $135 IPO price
🏦 Fed's Cook ready to act on inflation
🇧🇷 US hits Brazil with 25% tariffs
🇪🇺 Iran conflict clouds ECB's rate decision
🏭 TSMC's Q2 profit jumps 77% on AI boom
🏦 DTCC starts live tokenized stock trades
Plus: 🌍 9 macro news, 🏢 9 corporate news, 💰 10 deal flow, and 📑 6 research & reports.
📰 Top News
| 🚀 SpaceX falls below $135 IPO price LINK |
- SpaceX slid below its $135 IPO price for the first time on Wednesday, hitting a record low after falling 2.1% to nearly $2 under the offering price, leaving the stock down roughly 11% since its June 8 debut.
- The decline reflects growing investor caution toward AI-linked companies, with Miller Tabak strategist Matthew Maley saying the drop below the IPO price suggests the stock rose on "speculation" and "froth" rather than real fundamentals.
- The skepticism may center on SpaceX's AI spending, which hit $7.7 billion in the first quarter—about 75% of total capital expenditure—following its all-stock purchase of Elon Musk's xAI in February; Musk's net worth stands at $856.8 billion, down from $1.45 trillion.
| 🏦 Fed's Cook ready to act on inflation LINK |
- Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said she is "prepared to act" if inflation does not slow soon, signaling openness to a rate hike while granting "a bit more time" to see how price pressures develop.
- Cook said risks are now "strongly weighted toward higher inflation," citing the AI investment boom, tariffs, and the U.S. war with Iran, with inflation still well above the Fed's 2% target and the job market broadly stable.
- Her comments echo Governor Christopher Waller and feed investor bets on a possible hike as early as this fall, though two mild inflation reports this week muddied the outlook ahead of the Fed's July 28-29 meeting.
| 🇧🇷 US hits Brazil with 25% tariffs LINK |
- The US will impose 25% tariffs on most Brazilian imports starting July 22, closing a yearlong probe into what Washington calls unfair trade practices and ending failed negotiations, though beef, orange juice, aircraft, and energy products are exempt.
- The action, taken under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act to bypass Congress, targets Brazilian orders that pushed US tech firms like X, Meta, and Google to remove content, plus weak patent enforcement and ethanol barriers.
- President Lula called the tariffs groundless and vowed countermeasures and a WTO challenge, noting a $14.4 billion US goods surplus with Brazil last year; a separate US forced-labor probe could add a 12.5% duty next week.
| 🇪🇺 Iran conflict clouds ECB's rate decision LINK |
- Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes have pushed Brent crude back above $85 a barrel from around $70 last week, throwing the European Central Bank's July 22 rate decision into doubt as investors reprice for a possible hike.
- The ECB, which cut rates four times in early 2025 before reversing with a 25-basis-point hike to 2.25% last month, faces a bind: the eurozone imported 57% of its energy in 2024, yet the economy already shrank 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter.
- Markets now see a roughly 20% chance of a hike next week but expect two more 25-basis-point increases by spring, lifting the deposit rate to 2.75%, with ING warning Europe's inflation peak "might not be in sight yet" if oil keeps rising.
| 🏭 TSMC's Q2 profit jumps 77% on AI boom LINK |
- TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, posted a 77.4% year-on-year surge in second-quarter net profit, beating analyst forecasts as demand for artificial-intelligence chips drove a fifth straight record quarter.
- Revenue climbed 36% to NT$1.27 trillion (from NT$933.79 billion a year earlier), with the most advanced chips — 7-nanometer and smaller — accounting for 77% of wafer revenue, the segment tied most closely to AI computing.
- The results reflect strong orders from major customers including Nvidia, Apple and Broadcom; shares of Asia's most valuable company rose 1.23% on the day and are up more than 58% so far this year.
| 🏦 DTCC starts live tokenized stock trades LINK |
- DTCC, the infrastructure that clears and settles most US stock trades and custodies more than $114 trillion in securities, began running its first live trades of tokenized stocks and Treasurys on Wednesday, ahead of a full launch in October.
- Nearly 40 firms including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Vanguard and the New York Stock Exchange are taking part, testing blockchain settlement across collateral, repo, equities and margin, with JPMorgan tokenizing part of its Invesco QQQ holdings.
- By tokenizing assets it already holds rather than building a new venue, DTCC could set the reference point rival platforms plug into, dwarfing today's onchain market for tokenized stocks and Treasury funds, which is worth only a few billion dollars.
🌍 Macro News
- Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh testifies before Senate Banking Committee on economy and rates. LINK
- Bank of Korea raised rates to 2.75%, its first hike since 2023. LINK
- Japan reclassifies crypto as financial products, enabling lower separate tax rates. LINK
- Trump dropped Hormuz toll demand, citing new Gulf investments in US instead. LINK
- About 135 million barrels of Russian crude sit stranded at sea unsold. LINK
- UK economy grew 0.1% in May after April's contraction, data show. LINK
- US gasoline prices may top $4 a gallon amid Iran ceasefire jitters. LINK
- India approved $22 billion in incentives to boost domestic chip manufacturing. LINK
- South Korea to modernize state-asset law, adding digital assets and IP. LINK
🏢 Corporate News
- Mira Murati's startup Thinking Machines Lab released its first public AI model. LINK
- China cleared Apple Intelligence launch after Apple agreed to use Alibaba's Qwen AI. LINK
- Anthropic is moving toward a possible IPO later this year. LINK
- OnePlus plans to exit US, European and Indian markets this week. LINK
- Microsoft trains sales staff to win AI clients from OpenAI, Anthropic. LINK
- Data-center operator Csquare raised $1.05 billion in its NYSE IPO. LINK
- Buffett says he, not Greg Abel, drove Berkshire's new Alphabet stake. LINK
- Revolut gains preliminary Dubai approval to run crypto operations in UAE. LINK
- Nubank named Livia Chanes as its first Latin America CEO. LINK
📈 Stocks
💰 Deal Flow
- Walden Robotics debuted with $300 million seed round, $1.1 billion valuation. LINK
- No-code platform Emergent hit $1.5 billion valuation after $130 million raise. LINK
- Drone maker BRINC raised $125 million to expand police, fire drone use. LINK
- Gorilla Technology shares fell 28% after announcing $125 million convertible note sale. LINK
- Banking software firm Lumin Digital raised $115 million to expand offerings. LINK
- Swiss satellite maker SWISSto12 raised $70 million to enter new orbital markets. LINK
- Senra Systems raised $65 million to modernize wire harness manufacturing. LINK
- Israeli startup Oak raised $60 million to tackle corporate identity management. LINK
- German startup microagi raised $55 million, its largest-ever seed round. LINK
- ABB to buy Rotork for $5.5 billion, expanding its automation business. LINK
📑 Research & Reports
- New York Fed finds bank-affiliated firms dominate US nonbank financial activity. LINK
- Study finds most US stocks underperformed the market over a century. LINK
- PJM power grid fell 6.8 gigawatts short in latest supply auction. LINK
- Standard Chartered says the world is 're-dollarizing' despite falling dollar reserve share. LINK
- Private fusion investment hit record $4.48 billion in 2025, up 69%. LINK
- Core Scientific's CoreWeave deal yields strong returns, but Bernstein calls it exceptional. LINK