Hi there, this is your daily ☕️ Finpresso.
In today's newsletter:
🛢️ Brent tops $90 as US-Iran war hits Hormuz
🇳🇱 ASML posts record €9.3B in Q2 revenue
🇨🇳 Moonshot eyes $30B Hong Kong IPO
🪙 US misses GENIUS Act stablecoin rule deadline
📉 Fed sees inflation drop but call out red flag
Plus: 🌍 7 macro news, 🏢 9 corporate news, 💰 7 deal flow, and 📑 6 research & reports.
| 🛢️ Brent tops $90 as US-Iran war hits Hormuz LINK |
- Brent crude jumped more than 4% to $91.02 a barrel on Sunday as the eighth day of the U.S.-Iran war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage carrying roughly 20% of global oil.
- Vessel traffic through the strait fell sharply after Iranian attacks on commercial ships, and with U.S. crude also up nearly 3% to $84.85, analysts warn Brent could approach $100 absent swift de-escalation.
- The rally is feeding inflation concerns as higher fuel costs pass through to freight, food transport and gasoline, while equities dipped modestly on the prospect of prolonged energy-driven price pressure.
| 🇳🇱 ASML posts record €9.3B in Q2 revenue LINK |
- ASML posted record second-quarter revenue of €9.3 billion, up 21.2% from a year earlier, beating its own €8.4–€9.0 billion guidance and Wall Street's €8.80 billion estimate, with net profit reaching €2.918 billion.
- Citing "extremely strong" orders as chipmakers expand for AI-driven demand, ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast to €43–€45 billion from €36–€40 billion, roughly 35% growth over 2025's €32.7 billion, lifting margins to 54–56%.
- The US-listed shares, up about 69% this year and around 145% over twelve months to roughly $1,748, drew unanimous Buy ratings and a $2,421 average target, implying about 38.5% upside from current levels.
| 🇨🇳 Moonshot eyes $30B Hong Kong IPO LINK |
- China's Moonshot AI is preparing a Hong Kong stock market debut within six months, seeking a valuation above $30 billion, with Goldman Sachs and China International Capital Corp reportedly in talks to advise on the listing.
- The plan follows fast growth: Moonshot's annual recurring revenue rose to $300 million by June from $200 million in April, driven by its new Kimi K3 model, which topped Anthropic's Opus on some benchmarks.
- The news hit Hong Kong-listed rivals, with Zhipu and MiniMax shares falling roughly 27% and 16%, as Kimi K3's open-source release on July 27 lets outside developers freely use and adapt the system.
| 🪙 US misses GENIUS Act stablecoin rule deadline LINK |
- US regulators blew past the July 18 deadline to finalize rules for the GENIUS Act, leaving the framework governing dollar-linked stablecoins incomplete even as the law's core requirements stay legally in force.
- Six agencies, including the OCC, FDIC and Treasury, failed to complete rulebooks covering reserves, redemptions, capital and custody, with several related proposals still open for public comment into September, delaying clear compliance instructions for issuers.
- January 18, 2027 now stands as the key operational date for a stablecoin market that topped $300 billion by April 2026, leaving issuers, banks and exchanges to restructure reserves and choose supervision around still-unfinished rules.
| 📉 Fed sees inflation drop but call out red flag LINK |
- The Fed's July estimate shows headline US inflation easing to 3.32% from May's three-year high of 4.2%, but a stubborn core measure that strips out food and energy signals price pressures are spreading beyond fuel.
- The relief came as oil prices dropped on US-Iran peace talks, reversing a spike triggered when the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off a fifth of global petroleum demand and pushed gas prices up at their fastest pace in over three decades.
- Core PCE, a favored Fed gauge, is barely moving — projected at 3.36% in July versus 3.4% in May — suggesting policymakers may need to raise rates, a risk to AI stocks whose debt-financed data-center build-out and lofty valuations depend on cheap borrowing.
🌍 Macro News
- China's state funds prop up stocks, but rally momentum looks shaky. LINK
- Strategists warn markets underprice climate risk amid heatwaves, possible super El Niño. LINK
- China's car sales set for worst year since 2021, down 20%. LINK
- Tether's USDT faces two-year deadline to comply with new US crypto law. LINK
- White House weighs new AI-safety regulator reporting to the SEC. LINK
- AI memory-chip shortage becomes geopolitical priority, says SK Group chairman. LINK
- Andy Burnham becomes UK's seventh PM, but bond traders hold sway. LINK
🏢 Corporate News
- Anthropic in early talks to rent Meta computing power, worth $10 billion. LINK
- Ryanair's quarterly profit fell 34% on higher fuel costs, lower fares. LINK
- Apple opens early talks with DOJ to settle antitrust case. LINK
- T. Rowe Price launches first actively managed multi-token crypto ETF. LINK
- Meta hires AWS veteran Dave Brown to expand data-center ambitions. LINK
- Coca-Cola shares slip after ransomware attack shuts fairlife's US plants. LINK
- FTX to begin $900 million creditor repayments in late July. LINK
- SAP closes Prior Labs deal, pledging over €1 billion through 2030. LINK
- Nvidia's Jensen Huang strikes deals across Japan's push into physical AI. LINK
📈 Stocks
💰 Deal Flow
- Databricks valued at $188 billion in funding round led by Coatue. LINK
- CuspAI raises $450 million to apply AI to materials discovery. LINK
- Valar Atomics in talks to raise $1 billion at $6 billion valuation. LINK
- ACI Worldwide weighs selling billing unit for roughly $1.5 billion. LINK
- Partners Group raises over $15 billion for new infrastructure fund. LINK
- Segro rejects Prologis's third takeover bid, valued at £13.5 billion. LINK
- Samsung Biologics to buy PolyPeptide for $1.8 billion, South Korea's largest biopharma deal. LINK
📑 Research & Reports
- New York Fed: banks shifted, not eliminated, risk under Basel III capital rules. LINK
- ECB casts commercial banks as digital euro's key customer-facing distributors. LINK
- Euro-area firms report sharply tighter bank lending conditions in Q2 2026. LINK
- AI-driven shifts and volatile budgets threaten enterprise-tech vendors' customer lock-in. LINK
- Fading appetite for AI debt threatens higher borrowing costs for tech giants. LINK
- Asian clients drive Wall Street's record $25.7 billion equity-trading revenue. LINK