Hi there, this is your daily ☕️ Finpresso.
In today's newsletter:
📈 Microsoft gains record $450B in one day
🇺🇸 US joins Japan to prop up the yen
🇨🇳 Alibaba unveils its biggest AI model yet
🛢️ Oil drops 5% as Trump halts Iran strike
📦 Amazon jumps 13% on cloud, while Apple falls 7%
Plus: 🌍 6 macro news, 🏢 7 corporate news, 💰 5 deal flow, and 📑 6 research & reports.
| 📈 Microsoft gains record $450B in one day LINK |
- Microsoft's stock jumped 16% on Thursday, its largest single-day gain in nearly two decades, adding about $450 billion in market value, described by Bloomberg's analysis as the biggest one-day gain in stock market history.
- The rally followed the company's latest earnings report, with investors focused on strong growth at its Azure cloud computing business as evidence that Microsoft's heavy spending on artificial intelligence is starting to generate returns.
- The move fits a broader pattern this earnings season, as Amazon's revenue also climbed on AI investments while Meta and Microsoft both reported rising AI-related expenses, keeping cloud and AI spending at the center of Big Tech valuations.
| 🇺🇸 US joins Japan to prop up the yen LINK |
- The US joined Japan to buy yen last week, the first such coordinated operation since 1998, after the currency sank to 163.73 per dollar, its weakest in nearly four decades, before rebounding to 157.57.
- Analysts say Washington's main motive was self-preservation: Japan, the largest foreign holder of US government debt, might otherwise dump Treasuries to fund the intervention, destabilizing a bond market where 10-year yields have already climbed almost 57 basis points this year.
- Tokyo said it will tap the Fed's FIMA repo facility for future interventions, letting it raise dollars without selling Treasuries, a signal analysts called "bigger than the intervention itself," though they warn it won't last unless Japan tightens monetary policy.
| 🇨🇳 Alibaba unveils its biggest AI model yet LINK |
- Alibaba rolled out Qwen3.8-Max, its largest AI model with 2.4 trillion parameters, sending its shares up as much as 7.3% in their best session in nearly a month as investors bet on AI as a growth engine.
- The model returns Alibaba to open-source, letting businesses download and customize it themselves rather than only renting access, a shift meant to draw more enterprise customers to its cloud services and developer ecosystem.
- The launch escalates the US-China AI race, arriving days after Moonshot's Kimi K3, with one UBP executive arguing the performance gap with US leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic is "narrowing fast" despite US chip restrictions on Chinese labs.
| 🛢️ Oil drops 5% as Trump halts Iran strike LINK |
- Oil fell about 5% after President Trump held off on a new attack on Iran, pursuing a deal to end Tehran's nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global crude.
- Brent crude dropped $4.08, or 4.64%, to $83.85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell $4.01, or 4.74%, to $80.66, unwinding some of last month's 20%-plus surge driven by renewed US-Iran fighting and tanker attacks near Oman.
- Analysts cautioned the calm may not hold, warning this week could repeat last week's pattern if talks collapse and Iran leverages its control of the strait, possibly through an attack on a US base or a passing tanker.
| 📦 Amazon jumps 13% on cloud, while Apple falls 7% LINK |
- Amazon reports second-quarter earnings after Thursday's close, with investors zeroing in on its cloud growth and whether it will raise this year's roughly $200 billion capital-spending plan for AI infrastructure.
- The capex question follows sharp divergences among peers: Alphabet's shares fell after it lifted its forecast to as high as $205 billion, Meta dropped 9% on AI costs squeezing cash flow, while Microsoft jumped as much as 15%.
- AWS revenue is expected to grow about 31% from a year earlier, up from 28% in the first quarter, though that trails rivals Google Cloud's 82% jump and Microsoft Azure's 43% rise; Amazon shares are up roughly 3% this year versus the S&P 500's 8%.
🌍 Macro News
- SEC pauses Nasdaq's bitcoin options plan amid CME's regulatory challenge. LINK
- UK manufacturing growth slowed in July, PMI hits four-month low. LINK
- Rhine River water levels near record lows, threatening European shipping. LINK
- Exelon's high-probability data center demand dropped nearly 40% in Q2. LINK
- US Treasury sanctions two Iranian firms over Bitcoin-linked shipping insurance scheme. LINK
- Kalshi and Polymarket hit record $50.59 billion trading volume in July. LINK
🏢 Corporate News
- Shell sells European onshore renewables business to TotalEnergies, exiting clean energy. LINK
- Chinese chipmaker CXMT's valuation soared past $500 billion after Shanghai debut. LINK
- Ripple invests in ZILO and Licuido to expand tokenization services. LINK
- BBVA to fully own Altura Markets after buying SocGen's stake. LINK
- Index Ventures raises $2 billion, betting big on AI's next wave. LINK
- Partior and OpenAssets prove simultaneous settlement of tokenized assets and stablecoins. LINK
- Chime cuts 10% of workforce, leaning more on AI efficiency. LINK
📈 Stocks
💰 Deal Flow
- Amazon completes $50 billion investment commitment to OpenAI. LINK
- AstraZeneca in talks to acquire Bristol Myers Squibb, forming $400 billion drugmaker. LINK
- Mariana Minerals raises $310 million to expand autonomous mining software. LINK
- K2 Space raises $500 million to build bigger satellites, rivaling SpaceX. LINK
- Chamath Palihapitiya raises $135 million for AI startup 8090, becomes CEO. LINK
📑 Research & Reports
- US ban on Chinese AI models could cost businesses $12 billion yearly. LINK
- Stablecoins transform corporate cash into programmable, continuously deployable working capital. LINK
- Major US card networks aim to power payments for AI shopping agents. LINK
- AI reshapes UK job market, boosting skilled hires while cutting others. LINK
- Iran conflict could shrink UK economy 0.2% if Strait of Hormuz closes. LINK
- Sainsbury's sells Argos to Swift Partners for at least £120 million. LINK