US and China extend trade truce to January

US-China trade truce extended, Microsoft's $10B Gulf bet, and more.

US and China extend trade truce to January

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In today's newsletter:

🀝 US and China extend trade truce to January

☁️ Microsoft commits $10B to Gulf AI buildout

πŸ’΅ US weighs global push for dollar stablecoins

πŸ“ˆ NYSE partners with Blockchain.com on tokenized stocks

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China targets Broadcom switches in state data centers

Plus: 🌍 9 macro news, 🏒 9 corporate news, and πŸ“‘ 6 research & reports.

🀝 US and China extend trade truce to January LINK
  • The U.S. and China have extended their trade truce to January 10, keeping tariffs lower and rare-earth exports flowing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, as President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington for a state visit through Friday.
  • The one-year truce struck by Trump and Xi in South Korea last October was set to expire in November, and Bessent said Beijing still needs to fulfill more deliverables under the arrangement.
  • The extension falls short of expectations ahead of the summit, where many had anticipated the truce would be prolonged by six months or longer, while the two sides also discussed setting up an alert system for artificial intelligence incidents.
☁️ Microsoft commits $10B to Gulf AI buildout LINK
  • Microsoft will invest more than $10 billion in cloud and AI infrastructure across Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates through 2030, covering both capital and operating costs as it expands in the region.
  • On top of the headline figure, the company plans over $400 million on subsea and land connectivity in the Middle East by 2030, adding to a fiber network of more than 275,000 miles and stakes in cables serving Gulf states.
  • Microsoft is deepening ties with national AI bodies including Saudi Arabia's HUMAIN, Abu Dhabi's G42, and Qatar's QAI, though the HUMAIN and QAI arrangements carry no capital commitments, unlike the $1.5 billion it put into G42 in 2024.
πŸ’΅ US weighs global push for dollar stablecoins LINK
  • The Trump administration is weighing a plan to promote dollar-backed stablecoins abroad, using government-private joint ventures involving the Treasury, State Department and the DFC, to reinforce the dollar's role as the world's main reserve currency.
  • Because these tokens hold US Treasurys as reserves under last year's GENIUS Act, wider foreign use could lift demand for US government debt, an outcome officials have said could generate trillions of dollars in new appetite for Treasurys.
  • The push tracks rival efforts, as China's State Council reviews a yuan stablecoin roadmap and the European Central Bank prepares a 12-month digital euro pilot for late 2027, while the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act last week stalled the broader crypto agenda.
πŸ“ˆ NYSE partners with Blockchain.com on tokenized stocks LINK
  • The New York Stock Exchange's parent has struck a preliminary deal with crypto exchange Blockchain.com to offer tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on the NYSE's planned round-the-clock digital trading venue, pending regulatory approval.
  • The arrangement channels Blockchain.com's more than 44 million confirmed accounts across over 70 jurisdictions toward the NYSE, whose venue, first announced in January, promises 24/7 trading and instant settlement of blockchain tokens representing listed shares.
  • The pact follows the SEC's "innovation exemption" last week, which lets qualifying platforms trade tokenized U.S. stocks without registering as exchanges, as Blockchain.com, which filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO in May, competes with rivals including Coinbase; no launch date or financial terms were disclosed.
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China targets Broadcom switches in state data centers LINK
  • China's state-asset regulator has surveyed how deeply Broadcom's networking switches are embedded in state-run data centers, and could issue informal guidance to cut back, extending Beijing's push to swap out American AI hardware for domestic gear.
  • The survey found Broadcom switches installed in as much as 90% of state-owned companies, making it the last major US supplier in China's state AI build-out after Nvidia was already barred, though private operators like ByteDance and Alibaba are exempt.
  • China including Hong Kong was 17% of Broadcom's FY2025 revenue, about $10.9bn of $63.9bn, and the stock rose about 0.5% on the news, signaling limited near-term damage even as a multibillion-dollar switching market gets reserved for domestic rivals.

🌍 Macro News

  • Traders price 73% odds of an October Fed hike as inflation heats up. LINK
  • Oil industry warns diesel export ban could raise fuel prices before midterms. LINK
  • Britain's biggest banks complete first tokenized-deposit transfers, advancing blockchain settlement beyond testing. LINK
  • Senate Democrats press Republicans to restrict advanced chip exports to China. LINK
  • Oil slipped as traders weighed Asian import growth and Middle East tensions. LINK
  • Swiss central bank holds rates at zero as major peers tighten. LINK
  • Stocks fell as Treasury yield hit highest level since 2007. LINK
  • Dollar nears two-month high, threatening Indian stocks as investors favor US assets. LINK
  • Former SEC chair says agency dropped crypto cases to preserve credibility. LINK

🏒 Corporate News

  • Amazon shares fall after $3 billion India delivery expansion report. LINK
  • Disney raises ad-free streaming bundle prices as industry increases subscription prices. LINK
  • Meta plans up to $145 billion in 2026 capital spending. LINK
  • India's NSE debuts after raising $2.35 billion in major IPO. LINK
  • Drone maker Tekever valued at $6.4 billion after $580 million funding. LINK
  • Royal Caribbean reportedly considers $3 billion purchase of half of Sandals. LINK
  • McDonald's launches $8.5 billion franchisee plan to boost sales and margins. LINK
  • Grab executives buy over $30 million in shares after stock hits low. LINK
  • MoonPay buys North Capital to expand tokenized real-world asset business. LINK

πŸ“ˆ Stocks

β–² Biggest winners
CrowdStrike Holdings rose 5% after Bank of America upgraded its price objective to $260. LINK
IonQ rose 4% after announcing a real-time quantum error correction decoder on a single commodity CPU. LINK
HubSpot rose 4% after expanding its OpenAI partnership with deeper ChatGPT CRM integration and new ChatGPT Ads support. LINK
 
β–Ό Biggest losers
Paychex fell 9% after Management Solutions revenue of $1.21 billion missed the $1.23 billion estimate. LINK
Airbnb fell 8% after Meta's Muse AI agent threatened to bypass travel booking platforms. LINK
Chime Financial fell 8% after recent insider and major-holder stock sales. LINK

πŸ“‘ Research & Reports

  • Visa survey finds fraud protection and insurance boost stablecoin adoption interest. LINK
  • Institutional investors maintained crypto allocations despite bitcoin falling roughly 50%, survey finds. LINK
  • Crypto activity fell just 1.6% despite 50% market-value plunge, Chainalysis says. LINK
  • Kalshi could reach $42.1 billion valuation in optimistic scenario, PitchBook estimates. LINK
  • Enterprise AI spending rises despite falling model costs as usage surges. LINK
  • HSBC raises STOXX 600 year-end target, citing stronger profits and economy. LINK
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