Goldman's Top Strategist Says AI Capex Is Creating an Earnings Bubble, Not a Valuation One

Goldman's top equity strategist thinks the AI buildout is inflating earnings, not just stock multiples.

Peter Oppenheimer, in a mid-September client note titled Competition for Capital, says hyperscaler infrastructure spending may be building an earnings bubble, Fortune reported. It is a research note, not a downgrade and not a call that a crash is already here. He still hedges that last point.

AI capex and government borrowing, he argues, are fighting over the same savings pool, which lifts the global cost of capital. Capital spending among AA-rated tech issuers jumped 65 percent year over year in the second quarter, the tenth straight quarter that aggregate AA capex growth has topped 35 percent.

He still lists reasons this is not 2008: profits are fat, coverage ratios are high, and AI compute demand still outruns supply. He also warns that any slowdown in profit growth, with a higher cost of capital, could hit prices from the hyperscalers down through the chip and generator suppliers.

That warning sits next to a Treasury 10-year already at 5 percent and hardware lock-ins such as Generac's $2.4 billion Amazon generator deal.

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