Greer Says No India Trade Deal Is Imminent as Russian Oil Keeps a 100% Tariff Threat Hanging Over New Delhi

A US-India trade deal is not around the corner. "I don't think there is something imminent," US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Thursday, a day after a Trump-Modi phone call both sides praised. India, meanwhile, still faces the risk of US tariffs of up to 100% for buying Russian oil.

Greer did offer a sliver of progress. "We truly have identified the universe of items that are sticking points," he told Indian news agency ANI, CNBC reports.

Same talks, different moods

The tone in New Delhi was sunnier. Greer called Wednesday's leaders' call "very constructive," and Modi called it "productive," covering trade, defense, energy, critical technology and global security. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, in the US for bilateral meetings with Greer and the G20 trade ministers meeting in Milwaukee, posted about the "early conclusion of a mutually beneficial interim agreement."

Hoover Institution visiting fellow Ronak D. Desai summed up the gap neatly: "Goyal is counting the issues already resolved, and Greer is counting the ones that remain."

Oil is the lever

For Washington, the biggest problem is India's continued purchases of Russian crude, which the US says help fund the war in Ukraine. For New Delhi, the red lines are protecting its politically sensitive farm sector and winning better tariff treatment than its rivals.

The Iran war has made the oil question harder. It squeezed India's energy security and pushed refiners toward Russian barrels. US and Venezuelan crude have grown in India's mix this year, and sanctions pressure has already forced cuts to Russian crude before, but global supply is too tight for New Delhi to walk away from Moscow.

The tariff history shows how fast the numbers move. A 25% punitive tariff last August lifted duties on Indian goods to 50%. In February they were cut to 18%, with Trump claiming India had "agreed to stop buying Russian Oil," a claim New Delhi never endorsed. Today Indian exports face a 10% tariff following USTR's forced labor investigation covering 60 countries, with generic drugs and smartphones largely outside its scope.

The 100% threat is the stick on top, and Congress has been sharpening similar tools with secondary tariffs aimed at buyers of Russian energy.

Some analysts think the ceiling is lower than either side admits. "We may also be reaching the limits of trade complementarities between the two countries under current circumstances," said Teneo's Arpit Chaturvedi.