UK GDP rises 0.4% in July as AI-linked services lead

The Office for National Statistics, in its GDP monthly estimate for July 2026 released 11 September, said monthly real GDP grew 0.4% in July. That follows growth of 0.3% in June and no growth in May.

This is the official ONS monthly GDP estimate bulletin. It is not a Bank of England rate decision, and it is not a private-bank forecast.

In July itself, services rose 0.4%, production rose 0.2%, and construction rose 0.1%. Over the three months to July, versus the three months to April, real GDP also grew 0.4%. That is the eighth consecutive three-month on three-month gain. Services led that window at +0.6%, while production and construction each fell 0.5%.

ONS says no periods are open for revision in this release. The next bulletin, on 15 October 2026, will include Blue Book 2026 revisions across the full time series. Early monthly GDP prints are routinely revised as more survey data arrive.

The AI colour sits inside the services note. ONS says many of the IT businesses reporting the largest July turnover appear involved in artificial intelligence and cloud computing, and that the exact impact is hard to quantify. BBC quoted ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown on that point. Warm weather and the football World Cup also show up in the bulletin as mixed, industry-by-industry effects.

BBC also relayed economist comments that higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict may slow growth in the months ahead. That is a forward colour note, separate from the July print.

A services-led UK print sits next to Brent already above $100 and the ECB's deposit-rate lift to 2.50%. Other official-sector and tech-capex notes include TSMC's August revenue of NT$514 billion and Treasury's $6 billion debt buyback.

Treat the July +0.4% as a services-led print with an unquantified AI/IT colour note, and wait for the 15 October Blue Book revision window before locking multi-quarter UK growth views.